Most AI products are one model release from obsolescence. Here's the test I use to tell an AI wrapper from a real company — and when a feature's about to get absorbed.
TL;DR
- Most AI products launched in 2024–25 are thin wrappers around GPT, Claude, or Gemini. Most won't survive the next model release.
- The test: if a 10× better base model makes your product MORE valuable, you're a company. If it makes you replaceable, you're a feature.
- The moat isn't the AI layer — it's proprietary data, workflow depth, or earned distribution. None come from a prompt.
- Before committing 12 months to an AI idea: if the best builder you know could ship it in a weekend with GPT-5, it's a feature. Build something harder.